The Indo-Gangetic Plains once seemed immune to agricultural failure. This belief was not unfounded: fertile alluvial soils, a reliable monsoon, abundantgroundwater, and aGreen Revolution that had already proven the region was responsive to innovation. Stretching across Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh in the north and northwest, and Bihar and parts of West Bengal in the east, the Indo-Gangetic Plains are one of India's most fertile and densely cultivated regions. It produces nearly 70 per cent of India’s wheat and about 40 per cent of its rice, accounting for 46.6 per cent of total rice procured under the Minimum Support Price procurement.
But climate change is altering the scenario, and fast. The Council on Energy, Environment and Water’s (CEEW) Climate Resilience Analytics and Visualisation Intelligence System (CRAVIS), an interactive climate risk atlas which maps 279 indicators, including drought severity and rainfall extremes at the district level across India, shows that accelerating climate change is resulting in more frequent temperature extremes and erratic rainfall, destabilising the conditions that once made the Indo-Gangetic Plain agriculturally dominant. The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Reportidentifies increasing heat and monsoon variability across South Asia as factors that have made it difficult for farmers in the Indo-Gangetic Plains to predict the appropriate planting window or secure the water needed for a stable harvest. Here, we examine what it means for paddy cultivation and what it would take to make it adaptable to a changing climate.
How are erratic monsoons and rising temperatures affecting paddy cultivation?
Rice requires 1,300–1,500 mm of water across the growing season, predictable transplantation windows in June and July, and night-time temperatures low enough to allow the plant to consolidate the day’s growth. Disturbing any of the three leads to reduced yields. Disturbing all three of these in the same season, which is increasingly what farmers across the Indo-Gangetic Plains are experiencing, and the crop and financial losses compound.
A study by CEEW suggests that over the past decade, approximately 68 per cent of tehsils in the Indo-Gangetic Plains have experienced less rainfall during the June–September monsoon period. This decline becomes even more alarming when examined specifically during the rice sowing season: 87 per cent of areas show falling precipitation in June and July, the precise window when farmers must sow.
At the same time, rising temperatures alongside relative humidity have increased by up to 10 per centbetween March and June, creating a suffocating combination that intensifies heat stress on crops. Night-time temperatures have risen by 1.5-2°C over the past three decades. A crop that cannot cool down at night cannot properly fill its grains. The result shows up in smaller kernels, lower milling recovery and reduced market value, consequently devastating farmer incomes.
Temperature stress spans the entire crop calendar. Even a 1°Crise could reduce yields by 10 per cent or more, depending on variety and growth stage. Heat stress in the Indo-Gangetic Plains during the vegetative phase — end of June to early July — causes poor germination. Later, temperatures higher than 33–35°C accelerate grain filling — the window during which the plant deposits starch into developing grains — resulting in smaller and lower-quality rice grains. In the severely drought-prone parts of the upper (western Uttar Pradesh and parts of Uttarakhand and Haryana) and middle (eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar) Gangetic Plains, drought conditions have intensified over time. The share of drought-affected areas increased from ~20–25 per cent before 2000 to ~50–60 per cent from 2000 to 2012. Between 1982 and 2012, at least 50 per cent of agricultural (cereal) losses have been associated with drought.
What do the numbers look like on the ground?
To understand the implications of these trends on agriculture in the Indo-Gangetic plains, CRAVIS compares observed conditions from 2011–2024 against projections for 2031–2050 under a high-emissions scenario in which global carbon output continues largely unabated (RCP8.5).
Punjab produces nearly 10 per cent of India’s total rice output. Drought severity in its districts shows a clear and consistent worsening between the historical period and mid-century projections (Figure 1). This, along with unpredictable monsoon cycles, leaves farmers no choice but to increase groundwater extraction.
Figure 1: Six-month Drought Severity Index [higher values correspond to higher drought severity] for Punjab in the last 14 years (2011–2024) vs projections for 2031–2050 (under RCP8.5 scenario) at the district-level.
Source: Visualisation from CRAVIS
Bihar, which contributesapproximately six per cent of India's rice production, faces more complexities. Around 66 per cent of its districts may witness high-severity droughts between 2031 and 2050 (Figure 2). But many of the same districts, including Gaya and Patna, could simultaneously witness an increase in the number of unusually heavy rainfall days: from less than 40 days a year in 2011–2024 to more than 50 days a year by mid-century Figure 3).
Figure 2: Six-month Drought Severity Index [higher values correspond to higher drought severity] for Bihar in the last 14 years (2011–2024) vs projections for 2031–2050 (under RCP8.5 scenario) at the district-level.
Source: Visualisation from CRAVIS.
Figure 3: Unusually heavy rainfall days for Bihar in the last 14 years (2011–2024) vs projections for 2031–2050 (under RCP8.5 scenario) at the district-level.
Source: Visualisation from CRAVIS.
This is the central paradox: drought and flood have become concurrent vulnerabilities within the same agricultural season. Extreme precipitation floods fields, prevents timely planting, damages standing crops, and disrupts harvest schedules. Meanwhile, the underlying moisture deficit persists, and farmers respond by extracting more groundwater, leading to depleting water tables.
Figure 4: Days with maximum temperature greater than 35 degrees Celsius for India in the last 14 years (2011–2024) vs future projections for 2031–2050 (under RCP8.5 scenario)
Source: Visualisation from CRAVIS.
As water becomes scarcer, farmers extract more of it. As soil health declines under intensive cultivation, they use more fertiliser. Input costs rise. Net incomes fall. And throughout all of this, the groundwater and soil fertility of the Indo-Gangetic Plains keep on eroding.
What will it take to future-proof rice farming in the Indo-Gangetic Plains?
Monsoon unreliability currently forces farmers in the upper and middle Indo-Gangetic Plains to delay rice transplantation until mid-July, by which point the optimal soil temperature has often passed and the risk of late-season heat stress during grain filling has increased. However, shifting transplantation to mid-June, supported by assured irrigation, increased water productivity by 85.8 per cent compared to the traditional schedule.
In such a case, farmers can benefit from crop-weather calendars, which guide farmers on when to sow, transplant, and harvest. These calendars would need to be updated at a hyperlocal level and backed by reliable irrigation so that farmers can actually act on revised windows.
Alongside updated calendars, farmers can adopt sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) that improve water-use efficiency, soil health, and reduce fertiliser usage :
- Sustainable rice cultivation practices, such as alternate wetting and drying — paddy fields are allowed to dry periodically instead of being constantly flooded — and direct seeded rice — seeds are sown directly into the field as opposed to being first sown in nurseries and then transplanted into flooded paddy fields — that use 20–40 per cent less water than conventional transplanted paddy can aid in groundwater recharge.
- Bio-stimulants improve root development and nutrient uptake, improving crops’ moisture retention during dry spells.
- Micro-irrigation and mulching can minimise soil moisture loss, increasing water-use efficiency.
- Cultivating locally adapted, drought-resilient indigenous rice varieties, such as kalanamak and rambhog, that can withstand higher temperatures.
Scaling these practices can enhance nutritional, environmental, and livelihoodoutcomes for farming households across the Indo-Gangetic Plains. Ensuring the long-term viability of rice cultivation requires a strategic transition toward climate resilience. This involves embedding climate monitoring into agricultural planning, diversifying cropping systems, and adopting sustainable practices that improve soil health and water efficiency. Ultimately, ensuring the future of rice in India will depend on our ability to adapt our farming to a climate that is fundamentally different from the one in which its modern success was built.
Aishwarya Joshi and Pratyush Bhanja are Research Analysts, Mridul Khanna is a consultant and Sijo Abraham is an ex-colleague at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).
